Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, November 2008

6:49 PM |














Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, November 2008
IMF|2008|ISBN 978-1-58906-761-5|English| 69 pages| PDF| 2MB

With the global economy entering a major downturn amid a deepening financial crisis, Asia is confronting the likelihood of sharply slowing growth and increased vulnerabilities. In particular, global financial stresses and the process of deleveraging by financial institutions are expected to continue beyond next year. This will dampen economic prospects in the region via a number of potential channels, notably lower demand for Asia’s exports, tighter funding conditions, more volatile capital flows, depressed equity prices and confidence, and deteriorating loan quality.

As outlined in Chapter 1, our baseline scenario sees growth in Asia slowing substantially before beginning a recovery in late 2009. With the global slowdown dampening exports, growth in Asia is projected to come primarily from domestic demand, which is nonetheless expected to slow. With commodity prices easing and growth declining below potential, inflation should decline. In fact, there are signs that headline inflation—and to a lesser extent, core inflation—have already peaked. Read More

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